The NFL season may be only two weeks old, but that 12.5% of the games is enough of a sample size to make some assessments. We know that the Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, Texans, Vikings, Panthers, and Giants are very good. We know that the Browns, Bills, Bears, Redskins, and Colts are not. In fact, 88% of teams that start 0-2 miss the playoffs, which means that we can virtually eliminate eight teams from contention. We’ve learned that the Rams and Browns front offices are kicking themselves (or should be) for passing on Carson Wentz. And I was reminded once again why I hate fantasy football.
Tough week from an injury standpoint. Adrian Peterson joins Teddy Bridgewater on the shelf in Minnesota with a torn meniscus. Ameer Abdullah and Danny Woodhead both went down for the season. Doug Martin and DeMarcus Ware will be sidelined for a few weeks. Jimmy Garropollo, Doug Baldwin, and Smokin’ Jay Cutler are week-to-week but not expected to play. All of these could have some impact on this week’s lines. With that said, here are your Week 3 picks (home team in CAPS).
NEW ENGLAND (+1) over Houston – Let me say this again for the record…I’m taking the Patriots until further notice. And you’re going to give me a point? Thanks! Patriots 19, Texans 17
CINCINNATI (-3) over Denver – Has there been a defending Super Bowl champion that started the next season 2-0 and received less hype? Maybe there’s a reason for that. Bengals 21, Broncos 17
Oakland (+1.5) over TENNESSEE – I’m going down with the Oakland ship. Raiders 27, Titans 24
Arizona (-4) over BUFFALO – The soon-to-be-fired Rex Ryan said the Bills need a game like this to get their focus back. Careful what you wish for. Cardinals 30, Bills 16
JACKSONVILLE (Pk) over Baltimore –I think the Jaguars are the best 0-2 team and are due for one of those games. Jaguars 34, Ravens 17
MIAMI (-9.5) over Cleveland – Cody Kessler will be the fifth starting QB in Cleveland’s last five games. Miami’s stout front four should make life miserable for the rook. Dolphins 23, Browns 9
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5) over Washington – The build-up for this game will focus on a conflict. Odell Beckham vs. Josh Norman? Nope. The Washington Redskins against their own QB Kirk Cousins? Yep. If I’m a ‘Skins fan, I don’t like that. Giants 33, Redskins 22
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Detroit – On the six-star rated “Cheesesteak & Chowder” podcast (available now on iTunes), we have a segment called ‘Get Your Ass Back on Track.’ Listen to the bell, Aaron Rodgers. It tolls for thee. Packers 31, Lions 13
CAROLINA (-7) over Minnesota – I was at the game in Charlotte last season when the Panthers defense made Sam Bradford look like, well, Sam Bradford. Those who ignore history… Panthers 27, Vikings 19
SEATTLE (-9.5) over San Francisco – As banged up as the Seahawks are, I can’t get on board with Blaine Gabbert. Seahawks 18, 49ers 8
TAMPA BAY (-5) over Los Angeles – Banking on Good Jameis (4 TD in Week 1) over Bad Jameis (4 turnovers in Week 2). Buccaneers 29, Rams 12
PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) over Pittsburgh – This will be the toughest test for Carson Wentz thus far. Eagles 20, Steelers 18
KANSAS CITY (-3) over New York Jets – If this game was being played in New Jersey…I’d probably still take the Chiefs. Chiefs 23, Jets 17
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over San Diego – Chuck Pagano and Rex Ryan may be neck and neck in the race for the first coach to get the axe. This one could save Pagano’s job. Colts 27, Chargers 20
Chicago (+7) over DALLAS – I don’t really need a reason here. Bears 20, Cowboys 17
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Atlanta – The Falcons impressed me by beating Oakland last week. The Saints did the same by taking the Giants to the wire on the road. Saints 28, Falcons 24
Last Week: 11-5 straight up; 10-6 against the spread
2016 Season: 21-11; 17-15
Tough week from an injury standpoint. Adrian Peterson joins Teddy Bridgewater on the shelf in Minnesota with a torn meniscus. Ameer Abdullah and Danny Woodhead both went down for the season. Doug Martin and DeMarcus Ware will be sidelined for a few weeks. Jimmy Garropollo, Doug Baldwin, and Smokin’ Jay Cutler are week-to-week but not expected to play. All of these could have some impact on this week’s lines. With that said, here are your Week 3 picks (home team in CAPS).
NEW ENGLAND (+1) over Houston – Let me say this again for the record…I’m taking the Patriots until further notice. And you’re going to give me a point? Thanks! Patriots 19, Texans 17
CINCINNATI (-3) over Denver – Has there been a defending Super Bowl champion that started the next season 2-0 and received less hype? Maybe there’s a reason for that. Bengals 21, Broncos 17
Oakland (+1.5) over TENNESSEE – I’m going down with the Oakland ship. Raiders 27, Titans 24
Arizona (-4) over BUFFALO – The soon-to-be-fired Rex Ryan said the Bills need a game like this to get their focus back. Careful what you wish for. Cardinals 30, Bills 16
JACKSONVILLE (Pk) over Baltimore –I think the Jaguars are the best 0-2 team and are due for one of those games. Jaguars 34, Ravens 17
MIAMI (-9.5) over Cleveland – Cody Kessler will be the fifth starting QB in Cleveland’s last five games. Miami’s stout front four should make life miserable for the rook. Dolphins 23, Browns 9
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5) over Washington – The build-up for this game will focus on a conflict. Odell Beckham vs. Josh Norman? Nope. The Washington Redskins against their own QB Kirk Cousins? Yep. If I’m a ‘Skins fan, I don’t like that. Giants 33, Redskins 22
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Detroit – On the six-star rated “Cheesesteak & Chowder” podcast (available now on iTunes), we have a segment called ‘Get Your Ass Back on Track.’ Listen to the bell, Aaron Rodgers. It tolls for thee. Packers 31, Lions 13
CAROLINA (-7) over Minnesota – I was at the game in Charlotte last season when the Panthers defense made Sam Bradford look like, well, Sam Bradford. Those who ignore history… Panthers 27, Vikings 19
SEATTLE (-9.5) over San Francisco – As banged up as the Seahawks are, I can’t get on board with Blaine Gabbert. Seahawks 18, 49ers 8
TAMPA BAY (-5) over Los Angeles – Banking on Good Jameis (4 TD in Week 1) over Bad Jameis (4 turnovers in Week 2). Buccaneers 29, Rams 12
PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) over Pittsburgh – This will be the toughest test for Carson Wentz thus far. Eagles 20, Steelers 18
KANSAS CITY (-3) over New York Jets – If this game was being played in New Jersey…I’d probably still take the Chiefs. Chiefs 23, Jets 17
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over San Diego – Chuck Pagano and Rex Ryan may be neck and neck in the race for the first coach to get the axe. This one could save Pagano’s job. Colts 27, Chargers 20
Chicago (+7) over DALLAS – I don’t really need a reason here. Bears 20, Cowboys 17
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Atlanta – The Falcons impressed me by beating Oakland last week. The Saints did the same by taking the Giants to the wire on the road. Saints 28, Falcons 24
Last Week: 11-5 straight up; 10-6 against the spread
2016 Season: 21-11; 17-15