Our long national nightmare is officially over…it’s finally football season! But before we delve into the Week 1 picks, allow me to climb up on my soapbox and preach…
ESPN ran a segment on SportsCenter this week called “Big Man on Campus,” where they follow a player around for a day in the life type of expose. This week’s subject was University of Houston DB Brandon Wilson, he of the spectacular 109-yard missed field goal return in the Cougars’ opening day upset of overrated Oklahoma. We got to witness Wilson working out with the strength and conditioning coaches, breaking down the game film from Saturday, playing video games and talking shit with teammates in the locker room, and catching a bite at an off-campus establishment. You know what they never showed Wilson doing? GOING TO FUCKING CLASS!!! Can we please stop referring to these kids as student-athletes? They’re NFL minor leaguers, plain and simple.
Anyway, on to the business at hand. If you’re new to the program allow me to provide a little history lesson about this column. A few years back on a lazy Friday afternoon, I saw what ESPN referred to as their “Expert” NFL picks, with such luminaries as Merrill Hoge, Mark Schlereth, and my main man Ron Jaworski prognosticating that weekend’s winners. I disagreed with many of their selections and decided to make my own picks and track them against theirs. Needless to say, I beat them all (if you listen carefully, you can hear Jason mumbling “humble brag”). Thus, I’ve deemed myself an expert, will select winners for every NFL game this year and share them with you, the adoring public.
If you’re a loyal listener of the Cheesesteak & Chowder podcast (and if you’re not, stop reading this immediately and go subscribe), you know we do things a little differently from everyone else. It’s how we earned the first ever six-star** rating on iTunes. That in mind, here are a few caveats you must know before you digest this information:
Without further ado, here are your Week 1 upsets, locks, and other moneymakers (home team in CAPS).
Carolina (-2.5) over DENVER – since the traditional Thursday night game featuring the defending Super Bowl champion begun, only two incumbents have lost – the New York Giants in 2012 and Baltimore Ravens the next year. This will be the third. I know Denver’s defense will be good, but I can’t in good conscience back Trevor Siemian against Carolina’s D. Panthers 23, Broncos 18.
Tampa Bay (+3) over ATLANTA – I foresee great things for Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Quite the opposite for Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds. Buccaneers 30, Falcons 28.
Minnesota (-2) over TENNESSEE – With the Eagles owning the Vikings first round pick in 2017, I should be rooting against them. Problem is they’re loaded for bear, especially on defense. Vikings 24, Titans 13.
PHILADELPHIA (-4) over Cleveland – When the Bradford trade went down last weekend, I was surprised but also encouraged. Not because I think the Eagles will win more games with Carson Wentz starting, and probably the opposite will be true. But at least now I see that the team has a plan to fully rebuild. Excited for the Wentz era to begin. Eagles 24, Browns 16.
Cincinnati (-2.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Not enough Fitz-magic to silence the Red Rifle. Bengals 27, Jets 17.
NEW ORLEANS (-1) over Oakland – Quite honestly, this line scares me. West coast teams coming east for 1:00 games on Sundays historically haven’t fared well, but this is a Raiders line. Maybe I’m overvaluing the Saints at home. You’ve been warned. Saints 25, Raiders 23.
San Diego (+7) over KANSAS CITY – Got to love a division match-up right out of the gate. The Chiefs are banged up coming into this one, and Jamaal Charles may not even play. Think the Chargers can keep in close, but the Chiefs in Arrowhead are always tough. Chiefs 23, Chargers 20.
Buffalo (+3) over BALTIMORE – I flipped on this one a few times, and do think the Ravens will have something of a bounce back year. Call this a gut play. Rex Ryan and Tyrod Taylor both cut their teeth in Baltimore, and I could see Shady McCoy having one of those days. Bills 24, Ravens 23.
HOUSTON (-6.5) over Chicago – Brock Osweiler doesn’t have to be Peyton Manning for the Texans, he just needs to be better than Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden…shouldn’t be a problem. Texans 27, Bears 20.
Green Bay (-5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars are going to be frisky this year, maybe even threatening in the AFC South. But it’s the Packers that get off to a fast start in Jacksonville. Packers 30, Jaguars 24.
SEATTLE (-10.5) over Miami – You ever been in one of those Knockout or Suicide pools? This is the game that will have 90% of the traffic. Seahawks 33, Dolphins 20.
New York Giants (Pick) over DALLAS – As a fantasy owner of the Manning-Beckham “StackO”, here’s to a couple of Eli to OBJ touchdowns. Giants 35, Cowboys 23.
INDIANAPOLIS (-4) over Detroit – It’s the Lock of the…oh wait, never mind. Said I wouldn’t do that. Colts 20, Lions 14.
ARIZONA (-6) over New England – Even Pats fans are chalking this one up as an “L”, so who am I to argue? Could be a tough start for Jimmy GaropoLLLLo. Cardinals 28, Patriots 20.
Pittsburgh (-3) over WASHINGTON – I like the Steelers, even without Le’Veon Bell for the first three weeks. There’s a reason they’re one of the betting favorites to win it all. Steelers 25, Redskins 21.
Los Angeles (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Jeff Fisher told the world on ‘Hard Knocks’ that the Rams wouldn’t go 7-9 again. He’s probably right…they’ll be 6-10. But the 49ers will be in the running for the first overall pick in 2017. Suck it, Chip Kelly! Rams 16, 49ers 13.
ESPN ran a segment on SportsCenter this week called “Big Man on Campus,” where they follow a player around for a day in the life type of expose. This week’s subject was University of Houston DB Brandon Wilson, he of the spectacular 109-yard missed field goal return in the Cougars’ opening day upset of overrated Oklahoma. We got to witness Wilson working out with the strength and conditioning coaches, breaking down the game film from Saturday, playing video games and talking shit with teammates in the locker room, and catching a bite at an off-campus establishment. You know what they never showed Wilson doing? GOING TO FUCKING CLASS!!! Can we please stop referring to these kids as student-athletes? They’re NFL minor leaguers, plain and simple.
Anyway, on to the business at hand. If you’re new to the program allow me to provide a little history lesson about this column. A few years back on a lazy Friday afternoon, I saw what ESPN referred to as their “Expert” NFL picks, with such luminaries as Merrill Hoge, Mark Schlereth, and my main man Ron Jaworski prognosticating that weekend’s winners. I disagreed with many of their selections and decided to make my own picks and track them against theirs. Needless to say, I beat them all (if you listen carefully, you can hear Jason mumbling “humble brag”). Thus, I’ve deemed myself an expert, will select winners for every NFL game this year and share them with you, the adoring public.
If you’re a loyal listener of the Cheesesteak & Chowder podcast (and if you’re not, stop reading this immediately and go subscribe), you know we do things a little differently from everyone else. It’s how we earned the first ever six-star** rating on iTunes. That in mind, here are a few caveats you must know before you digest this information:
- I will ALWAYS pick the Eagles to win and cover, regardless of the opponent or location
- I will NEVER pick the Cowboys to win under any circumstance
- I won’t force commentary about every game – if I have something to say, I’ll say so, otherwise just the pick will have to suffice
- There will be no token “Upset of the Week” – If I like an underdog, I’ll make the pick accordingly
- Likewise, there will be no “Lock of the Week,” as I consider all of my picks to be a lock
- Finally and perhaps most importantly, these picks are for entertainment purposes only; if you lose money, that’s on your dumb ass (although, if you heed my advice and win money, kickbacks are accepted and appreciated).
Without further ado, here are your Week 1 upsets, locks, and other moneymakers (home team in CAPS).
Carolina (-2.5) over DENVER – since the traditional Thursday night game featuring the defending Super Bowl champion begun, only two incumbents have lost – the New York Giants in 2012 and Baltimore Ravens the next year. This will be the third. I know Denver’s defense will be good, but I can’t in good conscience back Trevor Siemian against Carolina’s D. Panthers 23, Broncos 18.
Tampa Bay (+3) over ATLANTA – I foresee great things for Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Quite the opposite for Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds. Buccaneers 30, Falcons 28.
Minnesota (-2) over TENNESSEE – With the Eagles owning the Vikings first round pick in 2017, I should be rooting against them. Problem is they’re loaded for bear, especially on defense. Vikings 24, Titans 13.
PHILADELPHIA (-4) over Cleveland – When the Bradford trade went down last weekend, I was surprised but also encouraged. Not because I think the Eagles will win more games with Carson Wentz starting, and probably the opposite will be true. But at least now I see that the team has a plan to fully rebuild. Excited for the Wentz era to begin. Eagles 24, Browns 16.
Cincinnati (-2.5) over NEW YORK JETS – Not enough Fitz-magic to silence the Red Rifle. Bengals 27, Jets 17.
NEW ORLEANS (-1) over Oakland – Quite honestly, this line scares me. West coast teams coming east for 1:00 games on Sundays historically haven’t fared well, but this is a Raiders line. Maybe I’m overvaluing the Saints at home. You’ve been warned. Saints 25, Raiders 23.
San Diego (+7) over KANSAS CITY – Got to love a division match-up right out of the gate. The Chiefs are banged up coming into this one, and Jamaal Charles may not even play. Think the Chargers can keep in close, but the Chiefs in Arrowhead are always tough. Chiefs 23, Chargers 20.
Buffalo (+3) over BALTIMORE – I flipped on this one a few times, and do think the Ravens will have something of a bounce back year. Call this a gut play. Rex Ryan and Tyrod Taylor both cut their teeth in Baltimore, and I could see Shady McCoy having one of those days. Bills 24, Ravens 23.
HOUSTON (-6.5) over Chicago – Brock Osweiler doesn’t have to be Peyton Manning for the Texans, he just needs to be better than Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden…shouldn’t be a problem. Texans 27, Bears 20.
Green Bay (-5) over JACKSONVILLE – The Jaguars are going to be frisky this year, maybe even threatening in the AFC South. But it’s the Packers that get off to a fast start in Jacksonville. Packers 30, Jaguars 24.
SEATTLE (-10.5) over Miami – You ever been in one of those Knockout or Suicide pools? This is the game that will have 90% of the traffic. Seahawks 33, Dolphins 20.
New York Giants (Pick) over DALLAS – As a fantasy owner of the Manning-Beckham “StackO”, here’s to a couple of Eli to OBJ touchdowns. Giants 35, Cowboys 23.
INDIANAPOLIS (-4) over Detroit – It’s the Lock of the…oh wait, never mind. Said I wouldn’t do that. Colts 20, Lions 14.
ARIZONA (-6) over New England – Even Pats fans are chalking this one up as an “L”, so who am I to argue? Could be a tough start for Jimmy GaropoLLLLo. Cardinals 28, Patriots 20.
Pittsburgh (-3) over WASHINGTON – I like the Steelers, even without Le’Veon Bell for the first three weeks. There’s a reason they’re one of the betting favorites to win it all. Steelers 25, Redskins 21.
Los Angeles (-2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Jeff Fisher told the world on ‘Hard Knocks’ that the Rams wouldn’t go 7-9 again. He’s probably right…they’ll be 6-10. But the 49ers will be in the running for the first overall pick in 2017. Suck it, Chip Kelly! Rams 16, 49ers 13.