Kansas City (-3.0) at HOUSTON
The case for K.C.: The Chiefs have won ten consecutive games, overcoming a 1-5 start to become everyone’s darling in the AFC. Andy Reid has been here before and will coach his 21st playoff game this weekend. So has his starting QB Alex Smith, albeit a smaller sample size. Smith almost led the 2011 49ers to the Super Bowl but was undone special teams gaffes. They boast a defense that is in the top ten versus the run and the pass and surrendered the third fewest points per game. And they’re surprisingly healthy headed into the postseason, most importantly x-factor LB Justin Houston.
Hyping Houston: The Texans beat Kansas City 27-20 way back in Week 1, though both teams have been transformed since then. All-pro DE J.J. Watt led the league with 17.5 sacks, can singlehandedly take over a game, and keys a defense that finished in the top 7 in points and yards allowed. DeAndre Hopkins has emerged as a bona fide #1 receiver (111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 TD’s).
St. Anthony Says: Say what you will about Reid and his clock management issues (and as an Eagles fan, trust me I have), he’s still got a proven track record of postseason success. I’m not expecting this game to be close so Reid should be able to stay out of his own way. Defensive ROY Marcus Peters locks down Hopkins, and the Chiefs control the clock with Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware and the 6th best ground game in the league. Kansas City 26, Houston 17.
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ CINCINNATI
Props to Pittsburgh: You’ve undoubtedly heard the sports cliché “act like you’ve been there before.” For the Steelers, it’s not an act. They’re seemingly always good, and this season is no exception. Despite missing four games with, as Mike Tomlin would say was “a knee”, Ben Roethlisberger threw for almost 4,000 yards with nearly half of that (think about that for a minute) courtesy of the hands on Antonio Brown. They also overcame the loss of RB LeVeon Bell, resuscitating DeAngelo Williams’ career. Some would say they’re lucky to be at the dance given their Week 16 brain fart in Baltimore, though I’d say those same people are not familiar with the history of the New York Jets.
Backing the Bengals: Prior to breaking his thumb (incidentally against Pittsburgh), Andy Dalton was having a career year, even garnering a little MVP buzz. The Bengals defense allowed the second fewest points in the league and finished third in turnover margin (+11). All four of their losses came against playoff teams – Arizona, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston (the infamous “Red Rifle B.B. Gun” game).
St. Anthony Says: Nothing personal against the Steelers, but I really want to pick the Bengals at home…but I can’t. Dalton has been ruled out, which may not be a bad thing given that he has a many playoff wins as I do, and has only thrown one more TD. So that means I’d have to ride with A.J. McCarron. Personally, I’d rather ride with Katherine Webb. Finally, let’s recount Marvin Lewis’ career playoff wins…aaaaaand we’re done. Steelers 33, Bengals 19.
Seattle (-5.0) @ MINNESOTA
Needle Points: Speaking of meteorically hot teams that nobody wants to play, I give you the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. Seattle is 4-1 in their last five games, including a 36-6 beat down of the seemingly disinterested Cardinals last week and a 38-7 trouncing of their first round opponent. Since Kam Chancellor ended his self-imposed holdout, the Seahawk defense has returned to form. Doug Baldwin (!) finished the season with 14 TD’s. By way of comparison, that’s how many Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater threw. Oh, and Marshawn Lynch is expected to play. There’s a lot to like about the Seahawks.
Minnesota Likings: As unanimous all-pro Adrian Peterson goes, so go the Vikings. Peterson returned from his nearly season-long suspension to lead the NFL in rushing for the third time in his career. The Vikings are on something of a roll, too. They won their last three games of the season, including in Lambeau Field last week to capture the NFC North crown. While they finished fifth in the league in scoring defense, they also only had a +63 scoring margin. Bridgewater is the personification of a game manager, but he’ll likely have to do more than that against the L.O.B.
St. Anthony Says: The game time temperature is expected to be about 3 degrees, which could obviously have an impact. Assuming that the conditions favor the running game, Peterson gives the Vikings a puncher’s chance, especially if Lynch is understandably rusty. If the Minnesota defense can force a couple of turnovers, and if Cordarrelle Patterson can break a kick return, and if Pete Carroll does something stupid call a slant pass on 2nd and goal from the 1, then maybe. That’s too many ifs for me to zag when everyone else zigs. Seahawks 31, Vikings 12.
Green Bay (+1.0) @ WASHINGTON
Baywatch: The Packers are literally limping into the playoffs, with a patchwork offensive line that saw golden boy QB Aaron Rodgers sacked 8 times in Arizona two weeks ago. The silver lining is that the Redskins are middle of the pack in terms of getting to the opponent’s QB. A solid running game would help, but Eddie Lacy couldn’t crack 800 yards this season and James Starks started to bogart his carries. Randall Cobb didn’t step up as a number one WR in Jordy Nelson’s absence. Green Bay’s biggest edge over Washington is on the sideline, as Mike McCarthy has a ring and Jay Gruden may not even be the best coach in his own family.
Why Washington: Like them or not (and as a division rival of the Eagles, I don’t), the Redskins deserve a ton of credit for rallying behind Kirk Cousins. They didn’t have much of a rushing attack, meaning it was mostly Cousins chucking it all around the yard. TE Jordan Reed is a budding star, and DeSean Jackson is back healthy and taking the top off the defense. Excuse me while I go put my head in the oven. Washington’s defense is average, but they’ve been a good home team this season. Yes, they won the NFC East, but that’s like being the smartest cast member on “Teen Mom.”
St. Anthony Says: The game with the closest spread is the one I expect to be the best game of the weekend. You like that?! For some strange reason, I think I do. Redskins 28, Packers 25.
The case for K.C.: The Chiefs have won ten consecutive games, overcoming a 1-5 start to become everyone’s darling in the AFC. Andy Reid has been here before and will coach his 21st playoff game this weekend. So has his starting QB Alex Smith, albeit a smaller sample size. Smith almost led the 2011 49ers to the Super Bowl but was undone special teams gaffes. They boast a defense that is in the top ten versus the run and the pass and surrendered the third fewest points per game. And they’re surprisingly healthy headed into the postseason, most importantly x-factor LB Justin Houston.
Hyping Houston: The Texans beat Kansas City 27-20 way back in Week 1, though both teams have been transformed since then. All-pro DE J.J. Watt led the league with 17.5 sacks, can singlehandedly take over a game, and keys a defense that finished in the top 7 in points and yards allowed. DeAndre Hopkins has emerged as a bona fide #1 receiver (111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 TD’s).
St. Anthony Says: Say what you will about Reid and his clock management issues (and as an Eagles fan, trust me I have), he’s still got a proven track record of postseason success. I’m not expecting this game to be close so Reid should be able to stay out of his own way. Defensive ROY Marcus Peters locks down Hopkins, and the Chiefs control the clock with Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware and the 6th best ground game in the league. Kansas City 26, Houston 17.
Pittsburgh (-3.0) @ CINCINNATI
Props to Pittsburgh: You’ve undoubtedly heard the sports cliché “act like you’ve been there before.” For the Steelers, it’s not an act. They’re seemingly always good, and this season is no exception. Despite missing four games with, as Mike Tomlin would say was “a knee”, Ben Roethlisberger threw for almost 4,000 yards with nearly half of that (think about that for a minute) courtesy of the hands on Antonio Brown. They also overcame the loss of RB LeVeon Bell, resuscitating DeAngelo Williams’ career. Some would say they’re lucky to be at the dance given their Week 16 brain fart in Baltimore, though I’d say those same people are not familiar with the history of the New York Jets.
Backing the Bengals: Prior to breaking his thumb (incidentally against Pittsburgh), Andy Dalton was having a career year, even garnering a little MVP buzz. The Bengals defense allowed the second fewest points in the league and finished third in turnover margin (+11). All four of their losses came against playoff teams – Arizona, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston (the infamous “Red Rifle B.B. Gun” game).
St. Anthony Says: Nothing personal against the Steelers, but I really want to pick the Bengals at home…but I can’t. Dalton has been ruled out, which may not be a bad thing given that he has a many playoff wins as I do, and has only thrown one more TD. So that means I’d have to ride with A.J. McCarron. Personally, I’d rather ride with Katherine Webb. Finally, let’s recount Marvin Lewis’ career playoff wins…aaaaaand we’re done. Steelers 33, Bengals 19.
Seattle (-5.0) @ MINNESOTA
Needle Points: Speaking of meteorically hot teams that nobody wants to play, I give you the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. Seattle is 4-1 in their last five games, including a 36-6 beat down of the seemingly disinterested Cardinals last week and a 38-7 trouncing of their first round opponent. Since Kam Chancellor ended his self-imposed holdout, the Seahawk defense has returned to form. Doug Baldwin (!) finished the season with 14 TD’s. By way of comparison, that’s how many Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater threw. Oh, and Marshawn Lynch is expected to play. There’s a lot to like about the Seahawks.
Minnesota Likings: As unanimous all-pro Adrian Peterson goes, so go the Vikings. Peterson returned from his nearly season-long suspension to lead the NFL in rushing for the third time in his career. The Vikings are on something of a roll, too. They won their last three games of the season, including in Lambeau Field last week to capture the NFC North crown. While they finished fifth in the league in scoring defense, they also only had a +63 scoring margin. Bridgewater is the personification of a game manager, but he’ll likely have to do more than that against the L.O.B.
St. Anthony Says: The game time temperature is expected to be about 3 degrees, which could obviously have an impact. Assuming that the conditions favor the running game, Peterson gives the Vikings a puncher’s chance, especially if Lynch is understandably rusty. If the Minnesota defense can force a couple of turnovers, and if Cordarrelle Patterson can break a kick return, and if Pete Carroll does something stupid call a slant pass on 2nd and goal from the 1, then maybe. That’s too many ifs for me to zag when everyone else zigs. Seahawks 31, Vikings 12.
Green Bay (+1.0) @ WASHINGTON
Baywatch: The Packers are literally limping into the playoffs, with a patchwork offensive line that saw golden boy QB Aaron Rodgers sacked 8 times in Arizona two weeks ago. The silver lining is that the Redskins are middle of the pack in terms of getting to the opponent’s QB. A solid running game would help, but Eddie Lacy couldn’t crack 800 yards this season and James Starks started to bogart his carries. Randall Cobb didn’t step up as a number one WR in Jordy Nelson’s absence. Green Bay’s biggest edge over Washington is on the sideline, as Mike McCarthy has a ring and Jay Gruden may not even be the best coach in his own family.
Why Washington: Like them or not (and as a division rival of the Eagles, I don’t), the Redskins deserve a ton of credit for rallying behind Kirk Cousins. They didn’t have much of a rushing attack, meaning it was mostly Cousins chucking it all around the yard. TE Jordan Reed is a budding star, and DeSean Jackson is back healthy and taking the top off the defense. Excuse me while I go put my head in the oven. Washington’s defense is average, but they’ve been a good home team this season. Yes, they won the NFC East, but that’s like being the smartest cast member on “Teen Mom.”
St. Anthony Says: The game with the closest spread is the one I expect to be the best game of the weekend. You like that?! For some strange reason, I think I do. Redskins 28, Packers 25.