In the aftermath of the Eagles 34-3 dismantling of the Steelers in Week 3, I heard from some of my Pittsburgh people (the few that can cobble together a complete sentence) that the game was an anomaly, a blip on the radar, just a bad day for the Steelers, that they’re not as bad as they looked and that, conversely, the Eagles aren’t as good. As the captain of the Wentz Wagon and a die-hard Eagles fan, I scoffed at this notion. Then Week 4 happened. Pittsburgh beat Kansas City by 30 on what Steelers coach Mike Tomlin referred to as “Redemption Sunday,” and all was right in the Black and Gold world.
My Week 4 picks were, in a word, dreadful. But rather than make excuses, I’m taking a step back and analyzing what went wrong. I’m challenging what I thought I knew. I thought the Panthers were one of the best teams in the NFC, that the Cardinals were still among the conferences’ elite, and that the Falcons were posers. Wrong on all counts. I assumed that the Broncos would regress, the Chargers were a sleeper, and the Jets could scare some people. No, no, and no. The Bears and Rams looked horrendous, until they didn’t. It’s time to review, reflect, relearn, reevaluate, and hopefully, redeem. After all, it worked for the Steelers.
A quick tangent before I get to the picks – I hate that the NFL starts bye weeks in Week 4. To me, it’s way too early. I understand that teams need a week off, just not three games into the season. My solution? A league-wide bye after Week 8. That way, no team gets the advantage or disadvantage of the early or late break in the schedule. The league could still play their ridiculous London game in Week 8 so those jet-lagged teams have the following week off. And, it would likely coincide with the World Series, meaning we’d have a sporting event of significance to gamble on, I mean, watch. Other than an entire week with no NFL games, what’s the downside? We’d still have college football, the NHL and NBA to fall back on. Maybe this will be added to the Cheesesteak & Chowder 2016 platform ticket. I’m Moretti, and I approved this message.
Without further ado, the Week 5 picks (home team in CAPS):
SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Arizona – This is almost like George Costanza doing the opposite of what his instinct tells him to do. But with Carson Palmer uncertain due to his entry in the league’s concussion protocol and coming off a short week, I think I have to take the 49ers at home. 49ers 19, Cardinals 16
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Houston – It’s a copycat league, and the Vikings are following the Broncos blueprint of stifling defense and a game-manager at quarterback. Who would have guessed that the last two unbeaten teams in the NFC would be the Vikings and Eagles, who executed a trade featuring a starting QB the week before the season? Vikings 27, Texans 21
Tennessee (+3.5) over MIAMI – I’m not sure how the Dolphins are favored over anyone right now. I like the Titans running game with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Titans 20, Dolphins 16
New England (-10.5) over CLEVELAND – With a pissed off Tom Brady back under center, I don’t think Vegas could have made this line high enough. Patriots 44, Browns 13
PITTSBURGH (-7) over New York Jets – Congratulations to Ryan Fitzpatrick for making NFL history (infamy?) with 9 interceptions in the last two games. Not even the turnover factory Mark Sanchez could pull that one off. Steelers 38, Jets 13
BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Washington – This is a game that needs to take place annually, even if it’s pre-season like the Giants and Jets. A natural, geographic I-95 rivalry. Ravens 20, Redskins 16
Philadelphia (-2.5) over DETROIT – Honestly, I’m nervous. I’ve been watching the Eagles for literally my entire life. The more attention they get from the league for the undefeated start, the more likely they become to lay a colossal egg on the turf at Ford Field. My sincere hope is that Carson Wentz keeps them grounded and focused. Eagles 30, Lions 21
Chicago (+5) over INDIANAPOLIS – Finally a coach doing something right, with John Fox saying he’s likely to ride the hot hand of Brian Hoyer (no, seriously) even if Jay Cutler is healthy enough to play. The Colts are coming off a London loss to the Jags, and teams usually get a bye after an overseas game. I can see the Colts sleepwalking through this one. Colts 24, Bears 21
DENVER (-5.5) over Atlanta – Super Bowl preview? Not really, but it is a Super Bowl review from 1999 when John Elway rode off into the sunset with two trophies. No way do Matt Ryan and Julio Jones go Tecmo against the Broncos defense. Broncos 28, Falcons 20
LOS ANGELES (-3) over Buffalo – I’m done sleeping on the Rams. I read somewhere this week that Case Keenum is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Case Keenum?!? This has the look of a let-down game for Buffalo. Rams 23, Bills 17
OAKLAND (-4.5) over San Diego – This is exactly the kind of game that has been tripping me up. The Raiders are 3-1 coming home after knocking off previously unbeaten Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Chargers came from ahead to lose to the formerly winless Saints. Easy pick, right? Should be. Raiders 27, Chargers 20
Cincinnati (Pk) over DALLAS – So the pundits saying the Eagles haven’t beaten anyone yet, but they’re stroking Dak and the Cowboys? They haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of a schedule themselves. I hope the Bengals win by 50. Bengals 34, Cowboys 20
GREEN BAY (-7) over New York Giants – Odell Beckham Jr. says he’s frustrated this season and not having any fun. You know who else is frustrated and not having fun? People who paid top dollar for you in their fantasy auction only to see you catch ZERO touchdowns through the first quarter of the season. And yes, I’m speaking from personal experience. Packers 30, Giants 21
CAROLINA (-6) over Tampa Bay – Last call for the Panthers, at least as far as I’m concerned. I expect Cam Newton to emerge from the league’s concussion protocol to not only play but play well. If not now, when? Panthers 31, Buccaneers 22
Bye: Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle
Week 4: 7-8 Straight up; 5-10 Against the spread
2016 Season: 37-26; 29-34
My Week 4 picks were, in a word, dreadful. But rather than make excuses, I’m taking a step back and analyzing what went wrong. I’m challenging what I thought I knew. I thought the Panthers were one of the best teams in the NFC, that the Cardinals were still among the conferences’ elite, and that the Falcons were posers. Wrong on all counts. I assumed that the Broncos would regress, the Chargers were a sleeper, and the Jets could scare some people. No, no, and no. The Bears and Rams looked horrendous, until they didn’t. It’s time to review, reflect, relearn, reevaluate, and hopefully, redeem. After all, it worked for the Steelers.
A quick tangent before I get to the picks – I hate that the NFL starts bye weeks in Week 4. To me, it’s way too early. I understand that teams need a week off, just not three games into the season. My solution? A league-wide bye after Week 8. That way, no team gets the advantage or disadvantage of the early or late break in the schedule. The league could still play their ridiculous London game in Week 8 so those jet-lagged teams have the following week off. And, it would likely coincide with the World Series, meaning we’d have a sporting event of significance to gamble on, I mean, watch. Other than an entire week with no NFL games, what’s the downside? We’d still have college football, the NHL and NBA to fall back on. Maybe this will be added to the Cheesesteak & Chowder 2016 platform ticket. I’m Moretti, and I approved this message.
Without further ado, the Week 5 picks (home team in CAPS):
SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Arizona – This is almost like George Costanza doing the opposite of what his instinct tells him to do. But with Carson Palmer uncertain due to his entry in the league’s concussion protocol and coming off a short week, I think I have to take the 49ers at home. 49ers 19, Cardinals 16
MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Houston – It’s a copycat league, and the Vikings are following the Broncos blueprint of stifling defense and a game-manager at quarterback. Who would have guessed that the last two unbeaten teams in the NFC would be the Vikings and Eagles, who executed a trade featuring a starting QB the week before the season? Vikings 27, Texans 21
Tennessee (+3.5) over MIAMI – I’m not sure how the Dolphins are favored over anyone right now. I like the Titans running game with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Titans 20, Dolphins 16
New England (-10.5) over CLEVELAND – With a pissed off Tom Brady back under center, I don’t think Vegas could have made this line high enough. Patriots 44, Browns 13
PITTSBURGH (-7) over New York Jets – Congratulations to Ryan Fitzpatrick for making NFL history (infamy?) with 9 interceptions in the last two games. Not even the turnover factory Mark Sanchez could pull that one off. Steelers 38, Jets 13
BALTIMORE (-3.5) over Washington – This is a game that needs to take place annually, even if it’s pre-season like the Giants and Jets. A natural, geographic I-95 rivalry. Ravens 20, Redskins 16
Philadelphia (-2.5) over DETROIT – Honestly, I’m nervous. I’ve been watching the Eagles for literally my entire life. The more attention they get from the league for the undefeated start, the more likely they become to lay a colossal egg on the turf at Ford Field. My sincere hope is that Carson Wentz keeps them grounded and focused. Eagles 30, Lions 21
Chicago (+5) over INDIANAPOLIS – Finally a coach doing something right, with John Fox saying he’s likely to ride the hot hand of Brian Hoyer (no, seriously) even if Jay Cutler is healthy enough to play. The Colts are coming off a London loss to the Jags, and teams usually get a bye after an overseas game. I can see the Colts sleepwalking through this one. Colts 24, Bears 21
DENVER (-5.5) over Atlanta – Super Bowl preview? Not really, but it is a Super Bowl review from 1999 when John Elway rode off into the sunset with two trophies. No way do Matt Ryan and Julio Jones go Tecmo against the Broncos defense. Broncos 28, Falcons 20
LOS ANGELES (-3) over Buffalo – I’m done sleeping on the Rams. I read somewhere this week that Case Keenum is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Case Keenum?!? This has the look of a let-down game for Buffalo. Rams 23, Bills 17
OAKLAND (-4.5) over San Diego – This is exactly the kind of game that has been tripping me up. The Raiders are 3-1 coming home after knocking off previously unbeaten Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Chargers came from ahead to lose to the formerly winless Saints. Easy pick, right? Should be. Raiders 27, Chargers 20
Cincinnati (Pk) over DALLAS – So the pundits saying the Eagles haven’t beaten anyone yet, but they’re stroking Dak and the Cowboys? They haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of a schedule themselves. I hope the Bengals win by 50. Bengals 34, Cowboys 20
GREEN BAY (-7) over New York Giants – Odell Beckham Jr. says he’s frustrated this season and not having any fun. You know who else is frustrated and not having fun? People who paid top dollar for you in their fantasy auction only to see you catch ZERO touchdowns through the first quarter of the season. And yes, I’m speaking from personal experience. Packers 30, Giants 21
CAROLINA (-6) over Tampa Bay – Last call for the Panthers, at least as far as I’m concerned. I expect Cam Newton to emerge from the league’s concussion protocol to not only play but play well. If not now, when? Panthers 31, Buccaneers 22
Bye: Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle
Week 4: 7-8 Straight up; 5-10 Against the spread
2016 Season: 37-26; 29-34